Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.717524 12.545854 14.548213 16.898112 19.574190 22.520548 26.003559
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 8.028201 10.546756 13.583627 17.487258 22.340986 28.144260 35.571189
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 6.004861 8.740248 12.328517 17.314342 23.985683 32.517941 44.153875
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 4.479694 7.162446 10.960130 16.613419 24.675070 35.594080 51.299191
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 3.450600 6.014772 9.904423 16.061378 25.344462 38.554694 58.434499
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.844803 5.358211 9.411779 16.181135 26.887686 42.774452 67.604277
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.312415 4.695920 8.773076 15.935766 27.781700 46.050328 75.606177
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.065410 4.474170 8.805762 16.745535 30.370946 52.058070 88.141856
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.791546 4.140364 8.578964 17.060654 32.146878 56.898470 99.195566
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.532813 3.778570 8.235473 17.105135 33.436505 61.019644 109.365855
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.318018 3.460253 7.917756 17.139458 34.683211 65.130628 119.771332
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.256086 3.466775 8.241340 18.422139 38.285782 73.485556 137.801087
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.143611 3.340533 8.288403 19.200128 41.092255 80.784497 154.746341
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.036448 3.205373 8.298699 19.911192 43.854736 88.243277 172.541728
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.882698 2.913126 7.911214 19.737408 44.869537 92.613637 185.183176
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.718595 2.547552 7.286901 18.958429 44.574673 94.513584 193.473409
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.591530 2.250706 6.771076 18.341298 44.529758 96.851629 202.686206
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.518783 2.098708 6.592274 18.476892 46.083454 102.380300 218.216591
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.440202 1.903591 6.262821 18.201649 46.704307 106.092240 230.487705
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.414354 1.882276 6.405577 19.111307 50.048947 115.510419 254.381360
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.372835 1.791750 6.335015 19.465130 52.147993 122.495274 273.844989
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.327554 1.672322 6.157584 19.515082 53.539944 128.092707 290.848457
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.287854 1.561500 5.985101 19.553617 54.903314 133.710950 308.200428